The book "Target Iran" by Scott Ritter is a must read for those concerned about a possible disastrous future oil shortfall. One way this can happen is by U.S. military action against Iran. I would like to quote just a few sentences about this from Ritter's book:
"Any aerial bombardment of Iran would reult in the immediate attack by Iranian missiles on targets in Israel, followed by a major Hezbollah rocketing of northern Israel. If U.S. military forces are deployed from the soil of any nation within striking distance of Iran, those nations, too, could be expected to come under Iranian attack. Iran will will fire missile barrages in Iraq, and then engage the entire coalition occupation force on the ground...
Iran will do its utmost to play the oil card, not only shutting off its exportation of oil and natural gas, but also threaten the oil production of Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, and Saudi Arabia either through missile attack or direct action... There is a better than even chance that Iran would succeed in shutting down the Straight of Hormuz, choking off the global oil supply.
The price of oil will skyrocket out of control as a result of any American invasion of Iran, and the destabilization inflicted on the world energy market will be made permanent if America employs nuclear weapons. Every American businessman...will face almost immediate financial ruin as a result of hyperinflation brought on by oil prices reaching in excess of $150 - $200 per barrel. The American consumer will suffer a collapse along lines not experienced since the Great Depression."
I don't know what we can do to head off the president's mad rush into war with Iran, except to let our representatives in congress that they had better stand up and put a stop to this mad business.

The History channel program scheduled for 11/13 at 8:00 P.M. on how wonderful renewable energy is going to be may give viewers a false sense of security that once again, technology is going to rescue us from the threat of the "end of oil". Nothing is further from the truth. There is no form of alternative, or renewable energy that is capable of replacing the oil shortfall that is looming with the oil peak that will be upon us in the near future. You can't power vehicles with solar, nuclear, coal or wind energy. Hydrogen power is an almost insurmountable technical problem that makes it look more like a pipe dream. Ethenol cannot possibly be produced in large enough quantities to make much of a dent.
I hope the program does not blind viewers to the serious challenges that must be met if our way of life is going to have any hope of surviving the serious consequences of oil shortfall.

JOe Raab

As I think about the transportation aspects of a sudden "oil emergency" it is clear to me that since the peninsula is virtually totally dependent on gas and diesel powered vehicles, mitigating those transportation problems will be very difficult. We have, for all practical purposes, very limited public transportation. The buses serve a very small clientele compared to rest of us using our personal vehicles, but are still a very small, but important resource. The practical question is: how do I get from A to B without affordable fuel for my vehicle? Personally, I live at the end of the road up Palo Alto and Marshall, and then up Tall tree Way. What are my choices for getting down to the store, assuming the store has food to sell? Ann and I have thought about this, and if we can't use a vehicle, we could: 1) ride our bicycles all the way there and back, but the road is steep, gravelly, and would be a heck of a trip. It would take a couple of hours probably, to get down to QFC and back. 2) We could buy a motorized tricycle from Roy the Tricycle Guy 460-8020 for $2000 (you've seen him around town) and get 120 mpg at 35mph, but who has $2000?, and it still takes some gas. It only seats one, so one of us stays home. 3) We could buy a used motor scooter at Port Angeles Power Equipment for around $1000, but this also seats one and takes gas. 4) We could buy an electric vehicle for $14,000...nah. 5) Form some kind of transportation cooperative with our neighbors, pooling gas money and making a large food run once a week.
The problem with all of this is that it leaves us virtually stranded up here almost all of the time. Do we sell our house and rent in Sequim? Not if the economy is taking a hit. We're screwed! Thanks for listening. Joe and Ann Raab

There are good reasons to consider what could be done right now to prepare for sudden oil shortage emergencies. This could happen in several ways: 1) The media begins real coverage of the end of oil scenario, causing panic on Wall Street, a serious economic downturn, and a recession, if not a depression. 2) Our favorite president could do something stupid in Iran, inflaming the Middle East even more, and in return Iran could attack Israel and close the shipping routes from Saudi Arabia. This would make the oil embargo of the 1970's look like a picnic. 3) China could take real exception to our attempts to control resources in Africa, with who knows what consequences. 4) Saudi Arabia and other oil producers might admit that they have passed peak production, causing the panic in #1.
The most worrysome consequence of a sudden oil emergency for us on the Peninsula particularly is in the delivery by truck of our food! If fuel for trucks reaches $10.00/gallon or is unavailable, we may not be high on anyone's list for food delivery. Think Seattle and the Puget Sound megaplex. At least they have a rail system. Our local producers could not possibly feed the people on the peninsula, even Sunny Farms relys on trucking for most of its produce. Nash Huber does not raise enough food to feed all of us. Do we want to live on broccoli and carrots?
So what is the "right now" solution? We'd better start stockpiling food and gasoline if we expect to be ready to eat or get anywhere. The most pressing thing is to begin growing our own personal food in our own gardens as soon as possible. We have five acres, three in trees, and I'm going to start cutting down trees and clearing land. But this solution requires that we have enough time for a harvest in 2008. It also requires that I'll have gasoline to run my chainsaw and a tractor.
A big part of the solution is coming together as a community to give each other moral and physical support. I'll grow lots of carrots if you grow lots of spinach, and if you grow lots of whatever else. With 100 people doing that we might be able to eat, somewhat. We could also start setting up community food banks of non-perishables for an emergency. It would have to be a BIG food bank.
Since PUD gets its energy from Bonneville dam, maybe electricity will be available if IT happens. Then I can run my heat pump. But my gas stove? Maybe the tank I have now is all I'll get. Then what, the grill?
My wife Ann wants us to put a wood stove in the house, which might not be a bad idea, since I have the wood. Regards, Joe Raab