Gasoline Supply in Ontario - A tightly coupled system under stress.
I've been thinking lately about the current mini-crisis in gasoline supply here in Ontario – How a few accidents, and slightly unusual circumstances have tightened supply, and how the psychological dynamics of shortage have, I believe, caused people to 'buy up' more extra gas than is missing from the system, causing an amplification of the problem, with selective station closings and some rationing at the pumps.
The problem arises because our Just in Time gasoline delivery system is so tightly coupled that a minor shock cascades through the system for weeks.
It is kind of a tempest in a tea cup version of the problems that may impact the global system over the next year or two, if the Saudi decline just breaking now on TOD is confirmed. See: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2325#more
The big picture is a bit out of our scope here in London, but the local mini-crisis is a local impact we could discuss.
Please post your thoughts below...
Post Carbon London (Ontario)
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March 3rd, 2007
About temporary fuel crises
Temporary fuel crises help to remind people about the importance of fossil fuels in society, and about (generally) about how fossil fuels must be transported in from elsewhere because they aren't extracted and refined locally.
What other impacts do these crises have though?
Overall, do temporary fuel crises better prepare people for peak oil? Do these crises galvanize change?
Will temporary fuel crises tend to encourage people to think that peak oil is a temporary problem?
May 16th, 2007
Looks like we may find out shortly...
According to some recent speculation, we may be in for another gasoline 'mini-crisis' in a week or two. (See: http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1252)
If so, we may get a chance to see how people react in SW Ontario.
I have some hope that shortages at the pumps combined with the heightened level of climate change consciousness over the last few months will lead to serious public discussion of oil supply and proposals for limits to recreational gasoline use.
It feels to me like we must soon reach a psychological tipping point, where conserver/local/frugal behaviors will kick in and replace the credit/consumer/confidence mindset.
There are just too many things stacking up, waiting to turn this mindset around... A gas crunch might be the catalyst, or a business shock like a recession, or just the growing pocketbook awareness that in the real world, the rate of inflation does include food and fuel, and that both are getting scarcer and more expensive.
I would not be at all surprised to see us move into the fall of 2007 with a much different frame of mind about resources and lifestyle that we currently have.