October 2004: Post Carbon News
Post Carbon Institute Newletter April 2004
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PCI
Staff
Director
Julian Darley
Communications
David Room
Programs
Celine Rich
Getting Started on Relocalization
ISSUE #3, October 2004
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In this
Issue...
- Letter from Julian Darley
- High Noon Website
- New End of Suburbia Website
- Crude Tour with Sonia
Shah
- New at Post Carbon Books
- Post Carbon Institute
at Solfest
- Relocalization Platform
- Join Post Carbon Institute
at The Green Festival
- Creating the Post Carbon
City - Peak Oil and Community
Solutions Conference
1.
Letter from Julian Darley
Monday 4th Oct 2004 11.30pm
Fort McMurray, Alberta Oil Sands, Canada
Hi
[First Name]
As oil settles at over $50
a barrel for the second day in a row (four if you include the weekend) I am
visiting one of the only places on Earth which really does have an expanding
hydrocarbon supply. Fort McMurray in north-eastern Alberta, is the hub city
of what may well be the world’s largest fossil fuel resource, the tar
sands of Athabasca and the Peace River. There is undoubtedly a lot of something
that, with effort and energy, can be turned into oil from the bitumen underground,
but it starts as solid, tarry, black-looking earth, that is referred to as ‘ore.’
I have a lump of it on my hotel-room desk now, picked up from a mine this morning
– it is definitely not a liquid, and it is termed ore because it is literally
strip-mined from not far below the surface.
Science-fiction
sized diggers fill 400 ton trucks, bigger than houses, which trundle through
the vast open-cast mines to unload into crushers the size of whole apartment
blocks. Each truck’s ore can potentially make about 200 barrels of synthetic
crude, which is about 3 tons of oil. The scale of the operation is unquestionably
impressive, and even more bitumen is now being produced from much deeper without
using trucks and diggers at all, but by injecting steam and melting the bitumen
where it lies. That too is impressive, but the reason for doing it is not to
prove what feats of engineering industry is of capable of, but rather that the
more easily strip-mined tar sands are barely five percent of the total resource,
and this has now been so comprehensively worked that deep or in-situ bitumen
is overtaking strip-mined production. It is in fact yet another example of depletion
at work. The irony is that it is so difficult to extract and refine the tar
sands that coupled with their enormous size, the tar sands alone of all ‘oil’
resources could indeed last more than a hundred years at the same level of production,
but even the projected maximum levels far into the future would not satisfy
present-day US demand for gasoline, let alone world supply of oil.
Which brings us back to
$50 oil. The question now being openly discussed is how soon it will make $100
a barrel. No-one can know, but it will surely make it ever harder for mainstream
economists and others to claim that all is serene in the world of oil extraction.
Indeed on Saturday last, one of Canada’s only two national newspapers,
The National Post, carried a front-page article headlined “Is the age
of oil coming to an end?” This may be the first time that a mainstream
national newspaper has headlined oil peak and on the front page too. $50 may
turn out to be the magic number that begins to crack people’s resistance
and shake their denial. Although this price is the highest in the history of
the important Nymex exchange, it is not the highest oil price ever. Many people
say that in inflation-adjusted terms the high is around $80, but Jim Williams,
an oil economist with WTRG, told me recently that he believes that the wrong
‘inflation adjusters’ have been used, and that in fact the top price
is really around $67, which means we are much closer to breaching that than
many people realize. It is a pity that price is about the only thing that many
people care about, but since that is the case, those of use trying to alert
the world to the impending disruption can only be grateful that the price is
at last grabbing the headlines.
One more indicator that
those in or close to the corridors of power are getting nervous about oil: the
IEA (International Energy Agency), which studies energy for the industrialised
nations, presented a graphs and charts [in ‘Is The World Facing a 3rd
Oil Shock?’ - http://www.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/Textbase/speech/2004/kr_rio.pdf]
in July, which showed unequivocally that they know about peak oil and are very
concerned despite their normal public stance of denial and near ridicule of
peak oil. Since western governments tend to take their energy cue from the IEA,
it will be interesting to see how long it is before they start admitting that
peak oil is real and must be faced.
As a reminder that it is
those of us in the rich nations (those ‘served’ by the IEA) that
will have the real problem with peak oil, a slide in one of Matt Simmons’s
latest and highly recommended presentations [http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/TCU%20Neeley%20School%20Of%20Business.pdf]
shows that the US uses over 100 times more oil per person than Bangladeshis,
and nearly 30 times as much as the Chinese, who are even now trying so hard
to ‘catch up.’ It shows how far they would have to go, and how even
with their still relatively modest use when they start to open the throttle,
how much the global oil markets are now being destabilized. Indians meanwhile,
consuming half the Chinese per capita level, are only just beginning.
Simmons is practically begging
the world to start studying peak oil and gas with the utmost seriousness, and
I strongly endorse that plea. The tar sands are definitely real, and some say
they may even double output by 2010 – but that will only take them to
2 million barrels per day, which is not even 3% of world demand, and by then
this would only offset one year’s predicted decline in global oil production.
It might take another 5 years to gain another 1 million barrels a day, by which
time we may have lost more than 10 million barrels a day in the wider world.
Once again the message is being rammed home that we must start reducing consumption
now, and the longer we wait, the faster we shall be forced by nature to contract
our energy needs.
Yours,
Julian Darley
Link
to audio of Julian Darley interviewed by Jim Puplava of Financial Sense Newshour:
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com#JulianDarley20040925
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2.
High Noon Website
We
are launching a website for Julian’s book High Noon for Natural Gas. It has
reviews, ways to get involved, interviews and ways to add your comments. Start
a reading group on energy peak issues with High Noon. Get a coupon code
for 40% discount on 4 or more copies of High Noon at http://highnoon.postcarbon.org/highnoongroup.htm.There
is a list of questions to
start off your discussions.
Please send dave@postcarbon.org
any comments on the site, reviews of the book, or LNG related materials to highlight
on the site. Link to the 0.9 version of the High Noon site: http://highnoon.postcarbon.org
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3.
New End of Suburbia Website
Check out our new
End of Suburbia website: http://eos.postcarbon.org.
Here you will find resources to help you host or organize a screening, such as our
comprehensive guidebook for public screenings. You can also post your screening
on the site, listen to interviews of featured experts, send a DVD to a thought
leader, and find tips to reduce your energy consumption from the film.
Many people have found showing
End of Suburbia in their communities helpful for raising awareness of energy
issues. We have collaborated with concerned citizens on screenings in Australia,
Canada, Croatia,
England, Germany,
Ireland, New
Zealand, South Africa,
Spain, and throughout the
United States.
Recent guest speakers at screenings include Richard Heinberg, Julian
Darley, Michael C. Ruppert, the producer Barry Silverthorn, the director Gregory
Greene, and Kevin Danaher founder of Global Exchange.
Barry Silverthorn (the producer
of End of Suburbia) has given Post Carbon Institute and people collaborating
with us permission to charge an entrance fee and/or accept donations which means
the screenings can generate funds for sponsoring organizations and/or individuals. Please
contact celine@postcarbon.org
if you would like to contirbute part of the donations to Post Carbon Institute.
Visit http://eos.postcarbon.org
to organize or help out at a screening.
If you are comfortable speaking about peak energy issues, please register
to speak at screenings in your areas: http://eos.postcarbon.org/localspeakers.php.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4. Crude Tour with Sonia Shah
Post
Carbon Institute is proud to co-sponsor Sonia Shah’s Crude Tour. The tour
runs from September 28 to October 16 and will hit 13 cities in the United States.
Journalist and author Sonia Shah speaks about her new book Crude: The
Story of Oil. In Crude, Shah presents the first concise history of this, the
world's most coveted and contentious mineral. This portrait of the fuel that
defined an age is shot through with a history of destruction and conflict as
myriad as oil's use.
Link to the Crude Tour: http://www.postcarbon.org/events/html/crudetour/crudetour.htm.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
5. New at Post Carbon Books
End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream
Post Carbon Books now has VHS as well as the DVDs of this documentary film for
sale.
Crossing
The Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil
by Michael C. Ruppert
"Mike Ruppert was one of the first journalists to understand the concept and
importance of Peak Oil. What is more important, he has connected the dots: he
understands the relationships between this historic watershed and the geopolitical
events of our time. Mike still has the instincts of a cop (which he once was),
but the criminals he is tracking these days are no small-time hoodlums; they
are some of the most powerful people on the planet. If you want to understand
the dynamics of the oil-money-drugs-and-war imperial system in which we are
all embedded, start with this book." Richard Heinberg, author of The
Party's Over and Powerdown.
Link to Interview of Michael
C Ruppert with Sue Supriano: http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/#MichaelRuppert20040831
Oil,
Jihad, & Destiny: Will declining oil production plunge our planet into a
depression?
By Ron Cooke
"I've read most of the books on peak oil. Oil, Jihad & Destiny made many difficult-to-understand concepts much more accessible. It approaches the subject not as an oil geologist or economist, but as a rigorously self educated pragmatist who takes a cold look at the facts, as we know them, and projects a complex set of knowns and unknowns into a chilling set of scenarios." J. William "Bill" Moore, Editor EV World.com
Link to Interview of Ron
Cooke on Financial Sense Newshour: http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/#RonCooke20041002
The
End of Fossil Energy and a Plan for Sustainability
By John Howe
Drastically reduced travel and speed are not easy pills to swallow, but we have
no choice. The math and dwindling high-energy resources will make changes inevitable.
If we control the coming change, we will still have a minimal amount of fossil
fuel left for national security, municipal needs, and emergency travel. Life
won't be that bad, our great grandparents survived without moving too fast,
got good exercise, and met their neighbors.
A lesson in basic physics, a description of our current usage, and a suggested
plan for future generations. Read it all in this comprehensive new book by the
visionary engineer and inventor John Howe.
Richard
Heinberg’s Museletter
We are pleased to offer Richard Heinberg’s critically acclaimed
Museletter in an electronic version. As an introduction, for a limited time
only, you can get a year of the online newsletter for only $10!
Link
to Interview of Richard Heinberg on Financial Sense Newshour: http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/#heinberg20040807
Also
available from Post Carbon Books
- Doing Democracy by
Bill Moyers et al - Radical Simplicity by Jim
Merkel - Limits to Growth: The 30
Year Update - Street Reclaiming by David
Engwicht - Superbia! 31 Ways to Create
Sustainable Neighborhoods by Dan Chiras and Dave Wann - The Art of Natural Building
edited by J. F. Kennedy et al - Money: Understanding and
Creating Alternatives to Legal Tender by Thomas Greco - Seeds of Deception by Jeffrey
Smith - Who Owns the Sun by Dan
Berman and John O'Connor - Colin Campbell DVD
- Percy Schmeiser DVD
Link to Post Carbon Books:
http://store.postcarbon.org
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
6.
Post Carbon Institute at Solfest
Post Carbon Institute had a
strong presence at Northern California’s premiere
alternative energy and living festival. Solfest
is a weekend party about sustainability and solar energy thrown by our friends
at the Solar Living Institute http://www.sli.org
in Hopland, California.
Julian gave two workshops on relocalizing the things that we take for
granted like a glass of water or a sheet of paper. Julian and Richard
Heinberg delivered powerful talks on the implications of oil and natural gas
depletion and what we can do about it. The concept of relocalization was
enthusiastically received by the standing room only audience as evidenced by
bursts of applause, one of the loudest being when Julian asked the crowd how
they would feel if the products they rely upon were labeled Made in Hopland
or Made in California. We are ever grateful to the volunteers that helped
with the Post Carbon booth (Gaylord, Dave, Dave, Richard, Michael, and Christine)
and to the Solar Living Institute for hosting this important event.
Join the Solar Living Institute mailing list
Email:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
7.
Relocalization Platform
Post Carbon Institute is developing a relocalization platform for candidates
for city council, mayor, commissions, school boards and other elected officials
in municipal government. Consistent with our Relocalization
Statement, the Relocalization Platform advocates local food, energy, money,
manufacturing of essentials, media, ownership, etc.. as well as rebuilding cities
for much less transport and energy consumption. Due to the inertia and
bureaucracy in the political system and the fact that the platform is all about
localization, municipal government will be the most effective entry point for
candidates with this platform. Julian Darley says “It is imperative that
people who understand our energy predicament and the need for relocalization
take over municipal government; the alternative is too painful to imagine.�
We encourage all of you who
have the stomach for politics to consider running for municipal office and begin
preparing now. Regardless of outcome, your voice will be heard and reported
on local media further propagating the seeds of transformation. Take a look
at our Relocalization
Platform online.
We
– those who realize the folly of endless growth and understand the urgent need
to Powerdown our civilization – need to take over municipal politics with votes
or with memes. Julian
Darley, August 2004
Featured
Relocalization Candidate: Bob Gragson
Bob
Gragson, Executive Director of the Solar Living Institute, is running
for city council in Ukiah on a Relocalization Platform. Richard
Heinberg, author
of The
Party's Over
and Powerdown
says "Energy and water are the two issues that will most affect our
lives in the future -- especially here in northern California.
If you think energy and water prices are high now, just wait. Bob
Gragson has a better understanding of the problems we
are likely to confront us along these lines, and of the positive strategies
that local communities can adopt, than anyone else I know of in this
region." Bob says “most politicians won't discuss oil and natural
gas depletion. They are either ignorant of it, or they fear it will
lose them votes".
This campaign is not about ignorance or fear however. It is about empowering ourselves in the face of perhaps the greatest challenge human beings have ever encountered.� His campaign site is http://www.gragson.com.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
8. Join
Post Carbon Institute at The Green Festival
Post Carbon Institute will have a strong presence at the Green Festival in San
Francisco this November 6th and 7th http://www.greenfestivals.org.
The Green Festival is the largest festival of its kind in the United States,
drawing tens of thousands. Not only will we have a table in a high traffic area,
Julian Darley will deliver a talk. We would love help at the table and engaging
progressives who know next to nothing about oil depletion; contact dave@postcarbon.org
to sign up for a shift or to donate towards the cost of the booth.
At the festival, we
will interview Vice Presidential candidate for the Green Party, Peter Camejo
who will be speaking on “The Coming Radicalization and the End of Oil”
and is also writing a book about investing in the context of peak oil. Julian
and Dave hope to interview a number of other speakers at the festival.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
9. Creating the Post
Carbon City
Our cities are the largest consumers of energy. In the lead story for the
re-launch of Urban Age Magazine (Fall 2004 issue), David Room lays out the case
for relocalization and ecological city design as key components of the Post
Carbon City.
http://www.urbanage.org/article.php?season=fall_2004&article=0065
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
10. Peak Oil and Community Solutions Conference
The Community Solution presents
The First U.S. Conference on "Peak Oil" and Community Solutions in
Yellow Springs, Ohio from November
12-14, 2004. At this conference, you will:
- Hear
from leaders who have begun working on changes in the critical areas of agriculture,
cities and small communities. - Learn how you can begin making
changes in your home, life and community. - Understand the geopolitics of
oil. - Be a part of creating a vision
for the future.
The keynote is Richard Heinberg,
author of The Party's Over and Powerdown. Other speakers include Richard Register,
Patricia Allison, David Blume, Harvey Baker, and Pat Murphy among others.
http://www.communitysolution.org/conf1.html
The Post Carbon Institute encourages the following courses of action:
- Begin building Parallel Public Infrastructure (we are working on research
and guidelines) - Write letters to the editor of your newspapers and to your local politicians--
(mention Peak Oil and Gas) - Tell your friends and neighbors what's happening
- Start a Post
Carbon Outpost - Forward this newsletter to others
- Support our efforts by becoming a href="http://www.postcarbon.org/index.php?page=membership">member
The Post Carbon Institute newsletter is designed
to inform you of the work of the Institute, which is to help educate
and prepare communities for a world of declining oil production. For
North Americans and those in the British Isles and New Zealand, peak
oil is compounded by heavy dependence on now declining natural gas production.
Help us get this message out to the rest of the world -- please forward
this email and encourage your friends, family members, co-workers, planners,
policy makers, and politicians to subscribe.
Post Carbon Institute is an Initiative of MetaFoundation.
Metafoundation, Incorporated in Eugene, Oregon
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