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Shut Up, Chicken Little!

Sat, 2005-11-19 09:25 — denise4peace

One of the disadvanages we face in trying to educate our friends, family, and strangers regarding "the truth" is that this is not the first time some of them have heard dire predictions that "we're going to run out of oil soon!" The first dire predictions surfaced in 1875, when the first U.S. oil wells (in Pennsylvania) began their post-peak decline. Oil had not yet been discovered in Texas and Oklahoma. Then, during the oil crisis of the 1970s (three years after U.S. oil production peaked), more dire predictions. And then (miraculously) abundant oil!

Foreign oil, that is. Lots of it, as the North Sea discoveries came online and Britain glutted the market, exporting their treasure to revive their moribund economy. This caused oil prices to decline, causing many OPEC countries to sell more oil (for less money) to maintain the lavish lifestyles of their greedy royal families (30,000 "princes" in Saudi Arabia alone!).

Now, Chicken Little is at it again: predicting the end of "Life, As We Know It" (LAWKI) When your friends, family, or strangers accuse you of crying "WOLF!" (again), ask those who are old enough to remember the Oil Crisis of 1973. Direct those who are not old enough to remember to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_energy_crisis

People stood in line for hours to fill their tanks--only to have the station run out of gas before they reached the pumps! Fist fights broke out in the lines and at the pumps. The cost of a barrel of oil went up 400% in less than a year. The U.S., and, in a domino effect, the entire world economy was plunged into "stagnation."

Now ask your critics to imagine what their lives would look like today if there hadn't been abundant foreign oil to pick up the slack as U.S. oil production continued to decline. Today, the U.S. has 2% of the world's oil reserves (yes, that includes the North Slope of Alaska and ANWR). We consume 25% of the oil that is being produced. What's wrong with this picture? It's called DEPENDENCY! The truth is: even if there was enough oil in the earth to last a thousand years, the people who own it can decide they don't want to sell it to us!

Whenever one person or entity depends on another person or entity for their happiness, survival, etc., they face the risk that, for any of myriad reasons, they may suddenly find themselves cut off from their source of support. People die, leaving their dependents destitute. Blooming populations of yeast consume the sugar in a wine barrel of grape juice until there's none left, and their own effluent kills them. Oil wells dry up. These are immutable laws of Nature, and human beings are just as subject to these laws(though many seem to have forgotten it) as yeast. The question is: ARE HUMAN BEINGS SMARTER THAN YEAST?

And, the facts are: there is NOT enough oil in the earth to last a thousand years, or even a hundred. Oil is a finite resource. Oil wells are scientifically proven to reach their maximum production approximately 30-40 years after production begins, after which they plateau (if they are lucky) and then begin an inexorable decline. Today, 50% of the world's oil is produced by 6 oil fields. The last oil discovery of any signifcance was in 1964. When world oil peaks (with a population of 6.4 billion instead of 1970's 3.9 billion) we will not be able to import oil from Mars.

DO THE MATH.
And learn to grow your own food.

(Oil Statistics taken from U.S. Energy Information Administration, at: www.eia.doe.gov)

Comments

Mac McKinney's picture
Mac McKinney
November 19th, 2005

Global Warming is Now Trumping Peak Oil

I would like to interject a point that makes the entire argument about when oil is going to peak meaningless. The planet now definitely faces an even greater threat, that of global warming. Almost all the scientific indicators now are going into the red warning zone, and more and more scientists are growing alarmed at the rapidity of climate change brought about by fossil fuels. We have just witnessed three hurricanes reach Category 5 status during their courses in the span of several months, an unprecedented event, not to mention unparalleled destruction of the all important coral reefs due to bleaching. As the positive feedback loops create more and more vicious cycles, we may soon reach a point of no return, whereby the planet, to put it mildly, will be cooked, and I mean well-done. So whether we have five years of oil, natural gas and coal left or five thousand, it is untenable to continue to invest in fossil fuels at all. Post carbon planners have to consider that oil has peaked NOW as a viable energy source. There is not much of a positive trade-off between running on oil for another decade or two while committing planetary suicide. Progressively, Mac McKinney
denise4peace's picture
denise4peace
November 20th, 2005

Human Nature

Hi, Mac.

Everything you're saying is absolutely correct, but my post is about countering people's negative (or non-) reactions to Peak Oil information and inciting them to action--not about what is the most pressing issue. Peak Oil is, after all, the raison d'etre for this website.

Regardless of technicalities... The unfortunate truth is, the vast majority of humans will not take action that inconveniences them until they perceive that danger is very near. It truly appears to be cross-cultural "human nature," perhaps even an evolutionary survival strategy. After all, why expend precious energy making plans to avoid theoretical bears in the future when you might need that energy to flee a mountain lion that could be in your face at any moment? Consider: it is only after many people die in fires that a community comes up with fire codes. It's only after a flood that people build a dam. It's only after someone in their family gets Leukemia that people join an organization to promote and raise money for Leukemia research. That's just the way things work.

The converging catastrophes we face today are unprecedented in the history of mankind. Global warming is still very theoretical, very distant, for most people. It's impacts are simply not hurting them enough, yet, to get their survival instincts going. After all, they've got air conditioning, cable, IPods, Ben & Jerry's and there's a sale at Walmart. Life is very comfortable!

In my experience, 99% of the people I talk to about Peak Oil have never even heard of it. And I'm talking about intelligent, college-educated people who read and keep up with the (mainstream and alternative) news, as well as strangers in line at the pharmacy and the lady behind the counter at the Smog Check station. When I explain the rudiments of it, those who do not have the "Chicken Little" denial reflex are interested and alarmed to some degree or other. I don't fool myself that they give a thought to the implications for hundreds of millions (possibly more than a billion) of poor people who are going to starve to death, die of preventable diseases, or freeze to death (starting this winter) in the years to come. However, they immediately grasp the significance (to some degree or other) of what Peak Oil will mean to their lifestyle, and their children's and grandchildren's futures. Most of these same people have been hearing about global warming and environmental devastation caused by their lifestyle for years, and most of them have never even gotten into the habit of turning the lights out when they leave a room or letting the car idle while they wait for a train to pass.

In my view, the most important thing at this point is not to argue among ourselves about what is the most damning catastrophe bearing down on us at the moment, but to incite people to action in terms of conservation, reducing consumption, buying locally, recyling, gardening, getting politically active, or anything else that will get them off their complacent butts and moving toward sustainability and post-carbon survivability. The second important thing is that we plant the seed of awareness, and that as that seed grows into alarm, they will know that we are here to guide them when they do get scared enough to take action.

The people who inhabit the frontier, the outposts, pave the way for those who come after, those who where too afraid to face the unknown but draw courage from the success of others. Today, Americans are ignorant. They are already on the frontier and they don't even know it. When they wake up, they will be scared. Plenty scared. They will be looking for an outpost to take them in and teach them the rudiments of survival in their new environment.

Let us plant our seeds and prepare the way. The sky is falling.

Mac McKinney's picture
Mac McKinney
November 20th, 2005

Peak Oil & Global Warming

Hi Denise, I agree wholeheartedly with what you are saying. But because fossil fuels and greenhouse gases are driving global warming, these two topics are deeply interwoven. What I want to emphasize is that a post carbon world has to arise all the more quickly if civilization, if not life as we know, is going to survive. So education about the one should embrace education about the other. The truth about global warming has been deliberately obscured and denigrated until very recently in the mainstream media through the machinations of Exxon/Mobil and such ilk, so little wonder that most Americans are only now beginning to take this problem seriously. Mother Nature is going to force us into increasingly strident action on both related fronts, confronting climate change and peak oil. In between the plethora of increasingly extreme events attending profound climate change, including watching hurricanes annually or semi-annually devastate the Gulf of Mexico oil rigs and refineries, and this on top of dwindling oil reserves globally, we are going to be met with nothing but dramatic if not astounding challenges. The Post Carbon Institute and outposts must therefore calculate these future challenges into their equations by taking great heed as to what climate scientists are now warning us about. Progressively, Mac
mountainhemlock's picture
mountainhemlock
August 10th, 2006

Peak oil & global warming

Mac McKinney wrote:

"I agree wholeheartedly with what you are saying. But because fossil fuels and greenhouse gases are driving global warming, these two topics are deeply interwoven. What I want to emphasize is that a post carbon world has to arise all the more quickly if civilization, if not life as we know, is going to survive."

I'm going to make an educated guess about something that Mac may have had in mind, but did not spell out. In the near-term, a meeting ground for both issues is conservation of the energy that comes from non-renewable sources (fossil fuels).

Judging by what's NOT happening in Washington and Sacramento, I am not sanguine about our prospects for a soft landing on the petroleum front. A good first step at the national level would be to emulate the Western European countries, and phase in a large gasoline tax, while taking measures to mitigate its regressive effects, like dedicating the revenue to expanding public transportation. However a more politically expedient approach in the short term would be to rely more on coal. Fortunately or unfortunately, we are well-endowed with that relatively dirty energy source, and should not run out during this century. Gasp!

Regards, Larry