Richard Heinberg, one of the country's leading educators on the topic of peak oil, visited Eugene on Jan. 10. The issue of peak oil is compelling: It's the point at which global oil production reaches a limit and can rise no further. Virtually no petroleum expert denies peak oil - the debate is when, not if. Many experts see evidence that peak oil will occur within the next five years.

Peak oil implies a collision between declining quantities of available oil and increasing demand. Because every country relies on cheap, abundant oil, this is a recipe for political, social, economic and military disruption on an unprecedented scale.

During his busy day, Heinberg met with Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy and officials from the Eugene Planning and Development Department, the Lane Transit District, the Eugene Water & Electric Board and the Lane Council of Governments. Heinberg emphasized the importance of preparations for peak oil without delay.

Several who met with Heinberg questioned the urgency. Some analysts claim the onset of peak oil will be delayed by market-driven increases in petroleum investment, discovery and production. Such hopes, according to Heinberg, are countered by current oil field depletion rates, diminishing global excess capacity, slowing rates of discovery and increases in the cost of developing new oil fields.

All of these challenge the "let market forces take care of it" approach.

Heinberg referred to the Hirsch Report, commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy and released last year, which lends credibility to the prospect of peak oil arriving sooner rather than later. That the study was done in the first place is telling. Steps to mitigate the disruptions caused by declining world oil production will take decades to implement, the report states, even if they were adopted as urgent national priorities. No one knows for sure when peak oil will occur. Notably, the report declares that preparing too early is better than preparing too late. Heinberg shared several quotes from the report:

"Oil scarcity and several-fold oil price increases due to world oil production peaking could have dramatic impacts ... the economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale." The report sees "a world moving from a long period in which reserves additions were much greater than consumption, to an era in which annual additions are falling increasingly short of annual consumption. This is but one of a number of trends that suggest the world is fast approaching the inevitable peaking of conventional world oil production."

Finally, "Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. But the process will not be easy."

Heinberg recommends developing local food security, ensuring local water and energy supplies, and improving a community's capacity to provide locally for essential goods and services. Further, he urged changes in the very way we live - such as mixed-use urban redevelopment, reduced dependence on automobiles and less use of all natural resources.

Later that day, at the Eugene Hilton, 800 people heard Heinberg's riveting presentation, and another 300 to 400 were turned away for lack of space. Interest in peak oil is growing locally and worldwide. Companies such as Chevron and Shell advertise their peak oil worries in national magazines. As a community, we would be ill-advised to passively wait to see what happens. Strategies for responding to peak oil merge with many of Eugene's community goals such as conservation, supporting the local economy and smart land use. We can advance both at the same time.

Organizers of Heinberg's visit have compiled a list of presentations, panels, tours and workshops explaining what to do about peak oil, communitywide and involving entire bioregions. All of these strategies focus on resource conservation and taking care of our essential needs locally (see www .eugenepermacultureguild.org).

EWEB, LTD, the city of Eugene and the Emerald People's Utility District provided financial support for Heinberg's visit and have a double responsibility. They helped bring to the public's attention the consequences of peak oil, and they are charged with looking after the health and well-being of the region's citizens. These public agencies must be in the leadership role of community response to peak oil. We call on them to collaborate with each other and with citizens in the formation of a Community Task Force on Peak Oil.

Jan Spencer is a member of the Permaculture Guild, which organized Richard Heinberg's visit to Eugene.