On the Bulletin Board …

Jim Puplava Interviews Matthew Simmons and Richard Heinberg

Jim Puplava interviews Matthew R. Simmons and Richard Heinberg, Financial Sense Online, Sept/Oct 2006. As mentioned before on the Bulletin Board, what makes Jim Puplava such a good interviewer is that he has developed some expertise in Peak Oil himself, and knows the right questions to ask.

Official opening of the Langeled Pipeline

The latest edition of the UK Department of Trade and Industry's Sustainable Energy Policy Network newsletter includes an introduction to the Langeled gas pipeline, and the announcement of a new DTI consultation - The Effectiveness of Current Gas Security of Supply Arrangements.

Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook: Energy Information Administration

The US Energy Information Administration published its Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook earlier this month. ODAC reproduces some of the highlights.

Oxford Energy Comment - The Peak Oil Theory

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies recently released a Comment in September entitled The Peak Oil Theory. In his Comment, Robert is very critical of current attempts and methods to predict when Peak Oil may occur. What exactly does The Peak Oil Theory have to say about Peak Oil ? This paper makes many points that are either misleading or plain wrong.

A Growing Skills Shortage

Two recent articles report on the impending skills shortages in the oil and gas industry: " the industry faces a crisis over the next decade as more than half of the employee base leaves the work force ".

Ireland Publishes BioEnergy Report

The Bioenergy Strategy Group, part of the Irish government's Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources, has just published a report called Bioenergy in Ireland.

Some new Articles ...

How to Wean a Town Off Fossil Fuels
Rob Hopkins has become well known in some Peak Oil circles for his attempts to powerdown the Irish town of Kinsale. Hana Loftus, writing for World Changing, gives a summary, with useful links: <<The story of the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan is an extraordinary one. A mid-thirties Englishman with a penchant for permaculture and an interest in peak oil moves to rural Ireland, starts teaching at the local further education college, and ends up writing, with his students, a ground-breaking document: the first timetabled strategy for weaning a town off fossil fuels. And what is more, that small Irish town actually adopts the action plan and starts to implement it.>> Read the full article ...

Map of County Cork (Kinsale is in district 7). Rob Hopkins website.

Greasing the Skids
Many articles have been published over the last few weeks on why/how oil (and in the USA, gasoline/petrol) prices have come down so far, so quickly. Many suggest that somehow or other the US government has been to a greater or lesser extent behind not so much the fall, but the size of the fall.    Read the full article ...

Peak Oil: Sell oil stocks?
The Daily Reckoning publishes all sorts of articles on the financial markets and what might affect them. It occasionally publishes on Peak Oil. Here Justice Litle suggests oil shale deposits are for the moment a pipedream, and Canadian oil sands a waste of gas:   Read the full article ...

Cities of the Future Won't Look Like Ours
James Howard Kunstler is one of the best writers on Peak Oil, and the end of the urbanisation which has become so dependent on cheap oil. Here, in AlterNet, he discusses what he calls 'The New Urbanists', people who plan for urban living with Peak Oil and Gas in mind, and the consequences of falling energy supplies:"  Read the full article ...

Natural gas has eight years left
The Republic is a newspaper local to East Vancouver, Canada. Dan Crawford reviews a talk given by Dave Hughes, the article states with Natural Resources Canada, but the additional article below is more specific - Geological Survey of Canada. Although this article was published in February 2006, it is an appropriate time to review Canadian natural gas prospects. North American (USA and Canada) natural gas prices are currently low compare to last winter (but high compared to the last five years, it is last winter that the media usually contrasts with). This article explains why in the medium to long term natural gas prices are likely to rise again and remain high: "A look at global primary energy growth showed that over the past four decades, growth has been 165%, with 4.3% growth in 2004 alone. Overall, natural gas has been the fastest growing fuel source in percentage terms at 283% since 1965. In most recent years, from 2001 to 2004, the fastest growing fuel source has been coal. For natural gas, North America is now on what Hughes calls an 'exploration treadmill', meaning that the number of wells drilled must be continually increased in order to hold production steady. The published numbers from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) concerning Natural Gas production in Canada confirms his statement. Look at the number of wells drilled by year, followed by production for that year:

1997: 4,842 – 15.7 Bcf/d;
1998: 4,991 – 16.1;
1999: 7,018 – 16.6;
2000: 9,078 – 17.1;
2001: 10,757 – 17.4;
2002: 9,061 – 17.4;
2003: 12,951 – 16.9;
2004: 15,126 – 17.0.

North America peaked in terms of conventional natural gas production in 2001–2002. Hughes walked through various scenarios where the shortfall in conventional natural gas supplies could be made up. He touched on Liquefied Natural Gas imports, coal bed methane, and the Mackenzie Valley pipeline. His conclusion was that it is going to be extremely challenging, perhaps even impossible, to keep North American production at a level plateau in the years ahead. Consumption trends and patterns were also explored. In every case, the phenomenal growth rates in our economy show a complete disconnect with the reality of the resources currently supporting them. Canada, for example, has 8.1 years left in natural gas reserves..." Read the full article ...

See also David Hughes': Energy Supply / Demand Trends and Forecasts: Implications for a Sustainable Energy Future for Canada and the World and the associated presentation (PDF, 4.2Mb) which is excellent. Covers oil, gas and coal, Peak Oil, LNG etc. 104 slides.

New Guest Articles …

Not a Good Half for Global Oil Production

Roger Blanchard discusses the decline in oil production from very large oil fields and how this decline is likely to ensure that future global oil production growth will not be as big has some authorities assert. Roger is the author of The Future of Global Oil Production.  See more ...

To read more, visit:  http://www.odac-info.org