I will have to spend another day in Pergatory because of another major sin today.  Again, it involved being invited out to lunch by folks from out of town. 

I just got back from the Willits City Council candidates forum this evening.  What a tough job it is to be a public official. And they get almost no money for it.  So I am very appreciative of those who serve.

It was a very civil affair and a lot of good questions were asked by the public.   I didn't submit one, but I didn't have to.  I swear about half the audience were official members of WELL (we even carry cards).  It is remarkable how in a couple of years the name of WELL was on the lips of the candidates repeatedly, and glowingly.  That was great.

The tough part was watching the discussions about growth.  More is expected and presented as inevitable.  There's both population and economic growth, and it is difficult to know what people are talking about.  I think they usually mean both at once.  Leaving aside any personal views on whether one wants to keep a small town small, just as a lifestyle choice, the math behind both economic and population growth given our impending energy realities just isn't there.  Try growing an economy and a population when, by say 2020, we have a quarter or less of the fuels we have now.  

It is really simple to do this math.  Say we maintain our current oil plateau until 2010.  After 2010 we have an average global decline rate of 4%.  Now because exporting countries are going to have internal growth, the export capacity may actually decline by more like 7% (it could be much worse than this).  A 7% decline rate means that the quantity will halve in 10 years.  Just divide the % figure into 70 to get the answer.  If the decline rate is 5% we get 14 years till halving. 

So how are we going to grow the economy, expand tourism (a popular theme, requiring well-maintained roads, cars and gasoline) and keep ourselves warm, fed and clothed with half the oil we have today?  

Here are some equations to compare. 

More Energy =  greater ability to do work = greater ability to build stuff, move things around, i.e., "grow." 

Less Energy = poorer ability to do work = poorer ability to build stuff, move things around, i.e., "shrink."

Shrinkage in economic terms (not a Seinfeld joke) = recession or depression.  Depressed economies also don't tend to have population growth. 

Global warming was also a grave concern, and the connections (or disconnections) between economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions were never made. 

Maybe I should have asked a question?

Maybe it isn't worth talking about much.  I think the scenario of no or negative growth is virtually unimaginable to the vast majority of people who came of age during the latter half of the 20th century, even with a giant WELL education campaign on these topics.

Just for the record, I've done a few interviews related to the connections among economic growth, resources, population and the environment:

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/641

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/717

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/707 

And have written some essays too:

http://www.energybulletin.net/3948.html 

http://www.energybulletin.net/3788.html

http://www.energybulletin.net/3179.html 

Breakfast

I felt better about breakfast today because of the homemade bread.

Oct 17 Breakfast

Pears from our backyard, zucchini bread Kristin made using mostly local ingredients (explained yesterday), and apple-pear juice from neighborhood trees.

Lunch

I won't let it be seen.  We went to Taco Bravo and I ordered my usual, a chili relleno plate. 

The beans were so warm and the rice so fluffy.  But I am not going to think about the way the assorted flavors and textures warmed and blended in my mouth, like the gooey white cheese in the chili.  Instead, I will remind myself that the 1500 mile diet that I experienced today contributes to the greenhouse effect.  Left unchecked, who knows how bonkers our climate may get, how fast and high the sea levels will rise, how quickly fertile agricultural bread baskets will turn to arid wastelands, how many people will flee from their homelands as environmental refugees, only to encounter other populations only marginally better off, or how many species will vanish from the Earth leaving a depauperate flora and fauna for whatever future generations remain.

I'll try to keep that all in mind.  

The chips were crispy.

Dinner 

Leftovers are a beautiful thing.  Not so fun for the blog, but they keep me from going nuts trying to figure out a new meal every day.

Oct 17 Dinner

This is just last night's dinner without the biscuits so I'll just reprint:  "Potato soup from our own taters, onions, and garlic, combined with milk and cream from Petaluma, topped with goat cheese from Lakeport. Biscuits from our own flour. Tomato, cucumber and sweet pepper salad from our garden. Tap water."

I came home after the candidates event and had dessert.

Oct 17 Dessert

That's watermelon from Covelo drizzled with Petaluma goat yogurt and Willits honey.