"Matthew R. Simmons and James Howard Kunstler Symposium on the Unfolding Energy Crisis and its Impact on Development Patterns"

Tuesday, 6:00 – 9:45 PM, November 1, 2005
Dallas , Texas

Two of the more eloquent Peak Oil proponents are Matt Simmons and Jim Kunstler. Matt comes to the issue from decades of oil and gas industry experience. Jim comes to the issue from his background as a writer, social critic and advocate of New Urbanism.

Both Matt and Jim are prominently featured in a recent DVD, "The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream," and they have agreed to do a joint presentation in Dallas , Texas .

The two lead sponsors are: the Greater Dallas Planning Council (GDPC) and the SMU Environmental Science Program. Additional cosponsors are: The Institute for the Study of Earth and Man at SMU; Sustainable Dallas and The Tower Center at SMU.

When I learned that both Matt and Jim had Peak Oil related books coming out this summer, I proposed that they do a joint presentation in Dallas ; they both agreed and my wife, Angela, and I worked with Matt and Jim's assistants to nail down dates for the fall. Our original plan was to have GDPC and the Maguire Energy Institute at SMU be the lead sponsors. Dennis Wilson, with the GDPC, and Mark Baxter, with Maguire, readily agreed.

Unfortunately, Mark Baxter passed away very unexpectedly, and he has been greatly missed by everyone who knew him in the Dallas area and across the country.

Fortunately, Bonnie Jacobs, head of the Environmental Science Program at SMU, picked up the ball, and Bonnie Jacobs, Dennis Wilson and their associates have been very ably organizing the event, including securing a perfect venue for the symposium.

My principal remaining role is to help secure underwriters for the event. Our hope is to minimize the ticket cost so that we can admit students on a reduced or no cost basis.

As most of you know, one of the principal opponents of the Peak Oil theory is Daniel Yergin and his Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). CERA make several points, but three of them are: we will see increasing oil production from Canadian tar sands; we will see very slow declines in production from the UK (they are estimating a 60,000 BOPD per year decline) and elsewhere and Saudi Arabia can boost its production.

Let's examine these three points:

According to the EIA, total Canadian oil production in May, 2004 was 2,384,000 BOPD. In May, 2005, it was 2,371,000 BOPD--down by 13,000 BOPD year over year. At best, increases in Canadian tar sands oil production over the past year are only serving to offset the ongoing decline in conventional oil production in Canada .

UK oil production is currently declining at a rate of 16% per year, or about 300,000 BOPD per year.

Then, we have Saudi Arabia , which Matt Simmons believes may be on the verge of a serious decline. Using the P/Q versus Q analysis that Kenneth Deffeyes described, Saudi Arabia is precisely at the same point that Texas was at in 1972, the year before we started a permanent and so far irreversible decline in oil production.

In my opinion, Yergin, et al, are offering Amercans the worst possible advice at the worst possible time .

If you have any questions, please give me a call at 972-588-8125, or you can contact Bonnie Jacobs, with SMU, at 214-768-2743, or Dennis Wilson, with the GDPC, at 214-320-1010.

We will forward on the general admission information as soon as it is ready.

Jeffrey J. Brown
Independent Petroleum Geologist

Following are the proposed underwriting/sponsor levels:

Platinum $5,000 10 Invitations to Private Reception; 10 Reserved Seats; Logo Prominently Displayed
Gold $3,000 6 Invitations to Private Reception; 6 Reserved Seats; Logo included

Silver $1,000* 2 Reserved Seats; Name listing as a Sponsor

*(or in kind Services)

More Information follows:

"Matthew R. Simmons and James Howard Kunstler Symposium on the Unfolding Energy Crisis and its Impact on Development Patterns".

Tuesday, 6:00 – 9:45 PM, November 1, 2005,

This event will take place at Wesley Hall at the Highland Park United Methodist Church - an auditorium facility that seats 750 people and located on SMU's main campus at the corner of Mockingbird and Hillcrest (see map http://www.smu.edu/maps/campus.asp).

Matthew Simmons is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Simmons & Company International, a specialized energy investment banking firm. This past spring, Simmons published a book titled Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy which focused on the limits of Saudi oil production, and proposes that the world is currently (or will very soon be) at peak production ( http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/ ). As Saudi Arabia possesses the world's largest reserves, he thinks that world oil production will be declining even as energy demands continue to increase with increasing world population and greater development in China and India .

James Howard Kunstler is an urban planning advocate, journalist and novelist ( http://www.lyceumagency.com/default.asp?id=267 ). He has written several books dealing with the suburban condition including The City in Mind, The Geography of Nowhere, and Home from Nowhere. His most recent book, The Long Emergency, deals with the problem of suburban sprawl and how it could be impacted by the energy crisis. Importantly, he advocates smart urban planning solutions, and the benefits of decentralized energy use in more compact communities.

Currently Co-hosts are:

The SMU Environmental Science Program
The Greater Dallas Planning Council
The Institute for the Study of Earth and Man at SMU
Sustainable Dallas
The Tower Center at SMU

Underwriters may pay by check or credit card.

BY CHECK: Checks should be made out to: SMU . "Simmons/Kunstler Event" must be written in the memo line to ensure that the money goes to the correct account.

BY MASTER CARD OR VISA : Send the card number, expiration date, security code, phone number, and name on the card. Be sure to include a street address for correspondence.

Checks and credit card information should be sent to:

Jared Calkins
Office of Development
Southern Methodist University
P.O. Box 750402
Dallas , TX 75275-0402