Peak Oil has happened

Posted by aarni on March 5th, 2008 at 4:38 am | 7 Replies

The US Energy Information Agency www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls (MS Excel spreadsheet) has May 2005 as the peak.
The EIA lists the production for Saudi Arabia as dropping by a million barrels per day over the last two years. www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11c.xls

How ready are we here in Scandinavia to solve all the coming changes? I am badly worried bout Finland.. Finland is a disaster to nature and biggest consumer of hydrocarbon products in Scandinavia. Tragically Finnish cities and landscape continues built whole life structure and living basing on cheap and forever flowing oil. Like nothing has happened.

peak oil

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Chris Vernon
March 5th, 2008

Re: Peak Oil has happened

Peak production of "conventional" oil may now be behind us but perhaps
that isn't the critical metric. The peak of "all liquids" is clearly
still before us with the last few months posting consecutive rises.

2008 and 2009 are set to be new all time records. Look at the volume of
new oil coming to market imminently, double the recent annual norm at some
7mb/d.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects

In my opinion, the available data indicates a peak between 90 and 100mb/d
within the next fix years.

> Peak Oil has happened
> The US Energy Information Agency www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls (MS Excel
> spreadsheet) has May 2005 as the peak.

xtraspatial
March 5th, 2008

Re: Peak Oil has happened

Regarding Chris Vernon's comments:

Let's not confuse Petroleum Production for Petroleum Extraction. Peak Oil metrics are all based on the logistic curve of extraction (pumping from the ground) and its precursor surrogate discovery. Production (refining and distribution) is much more sensitive to supply/demand factors, refining capacity, seasonal effects, geopolitical climate, US election cycle, and economic factors (profitability). All of these will add noise to the signal that we are in or entering the Peak Oil plateau.

Jim Zack

hipnot
March 5th, 2008

Re: Peak Oil has happened

The reason Peak production of conventional oil is so important is that
it is a lot cheaper. And it has a positive EROI. Going into a period
with 10 million unconventional barrels is undermining the economy.
Now OPEC is not going to increase ( they can't) we are in for
interesting times,,,,,,

Steve
>
> Peak production of "conventional" oil may now be behind us but perhaps
> that isn't the critical metric. The peak of "all liquids" is clearly
> still before us with the last few months posting consecutive rises.
>
> 2008 and 2009 are set to be new all time records. Look at the volume of
> new oil coming to market imminently, double the recent annual norm at some
> 7mb/d.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects
>
> In my opinion, the available data indicates a peak between 90 and 100mb/d
> within the next fix years.
>
>
> > Peak Oil has happened
> > The US Energy Information Agency www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls
> http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls --> (MS Excel
> > spreadsheet) has May 2005 as the peak.
>
>
> To view this group on the web, visit The Coordinator HUB Home Page
> http://www.relocalize.net/groups/coordinate -->
> To Unsubscribe from this list visit your My Subscription page for the
> group http://www.relocalize.net/og/manage/1583 -->

mgitterle
March 5th, 2008

Re: Peak Oil has happened

I agree wholeheartedly that the peak in conventional liquids is absolutely key. "Nonconventional Hydrocarbon" liquids are -- to use a "Kunstlerism" -- a hallucinatory 'source of energy.' Truly net-energy is the key. Only conventional petroleum provides enough of a net-energy benefit to keep the economic engines going. Tar sands and heavy liquids are akin to the extreme measures we use in the ICU in my profession to keep a patient's heart beating long enough to get the whole family to the hospital so they can hold hands and say goodbye to their loved one.

It is incontestable that a peak in conventional petroleum liquid production occurred in 2005. Even granting the assertion of some "big petroleum" players (with obvious axes to grind and share values to protect), that there will be a "bumpy peak" with periodic increases in production as new, smaller fields are brought online, we are in the most serious sort of trouble. That is the bottom line. Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton, one of the most prescient, peak oil observers, noted that every country that has had its own internal oil production peak in the past, has seen an internal crisis begin around 2 years from the date of its peak. He mused about what would happen when the worldwide peak occurred, and opined that it was probable that a worldwide crisis would begin 2 years thereafter. Hmm, isn't it just over two years post-peak, and didn't a world financial crisis begin in the Fall of 2007? Remember what happened 2 years after the peak in US oil production (we peaked in 1972/3)? We had a major political and economic crisis period, lasting several years.

But, the internal crises in countries that peaked in the past (in the 20th Century) were ultimately mitigated by the buffer of increasing oil production in other nations that was occurring back then. While we fell on energy hard times, we still had "rich cousins" somewhere else to help smooth things out. We no longer have that buffer of net-increasing world energy availability. We are indeed two-years-post a world peak, in the zone called "Transition 1." The Long Emergency has begun in earnest. Economically, socially, politically, agriculturally -- from every perspective -- it will get no easier from here.

I think I probably speak for the Coordinator Hub group members in saying that I had hoped more folks would have joined our movement by now, but I feel certain that our membership will increase dramatically this year, probably toward the Fall of 2008. Our work will be perhaps more difficult now, in some ways, as more of the folks we work with will be touched by the economic crisis, and various other challenges that we have not even seen yet, but I suspect we will be emboldened by the sheer number of people who will show up at our respective meetings, and sign up on our group websites. Our own group in Wimberley, Texas seems to be picking up steam in many subtle ways, and things like our food co-op have taken on an incredible energy and participation. Most of those involved are still pretty unconscious of the broader picture and the permanent nature of the crisis unfolding, but I think they sense something, and are looking for community and sustainability, in a way they have not before. It's pretty heartening.

Marcus L. Gitterle, M.D.

Chairman, Department of Emergency Medicine

Christus Santa Rosa Hospital,

New Braunfels, Texas

On Mar 5, 2008, at 8:16 AM, hipnot wrote:

The reason Peak production of conventional oil is so important is that
it is a lot cheaper. And it has a positive EROI. Going into a period
with 10 million unconventional barrels is undermining the economy.
Now OPEC is not going to increase ( they can't) we are in for
interesting times,,,,,,

Steve
>
> Peak production of "conventional" oil may now be behind us but perhaps
> that isn't the critical metric. The peak of "all liquids" is clearly
> still before us with the last few months posting consecutive rises.
>
> 2008 and 2009 are set to be new all time records. Look at the volume of
> new oil coming to market imminently, double the recent annual norm at some
> 7mb/d.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects
>
> In my opinion, the available data indicates a peak between 90 and 100mb/d
> within the next fix years.
>
>
> > Peak Oil has happened
> > The US Energy Information Agency www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls
> http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls --> (MS Excel
> > spreadsheet) has May 2005 as the peak.
>
>
> To view this group on the web, visit The Coordinator HUB Home Page
> http://www.relocalize.net/groups/coordinate -->
> To Unsubscribe from this list visit your My Subscription page for the
> group http://www.relocalize.net/og/manage/1583 -->

Chris Vernon
March 5th, 2008

Re: Peak Oil has happened

Yes the 2005 peak in conventional oil is important but it isn't the whole
story. Remember that the 2005 peak was ~74mb/d, today it's around 73mb/d
of the total liquid production of around 86mb/d.

The 13mb/d difference certainly isn't and shouldn't be dismissed as all
being low net-energy tar sands, biofuels and the like. There are some
very nice and useful products that aren't counted in the EIA conventional
data and certainly haven't peaked.

> I agree wholeheartedly that the peak in conventional liquids is absolutely
> key. "Nonconventional Hydrocarbon" liquids are -- to use a "Kunstlerism"
> -- a hallucinatory 'source of energy.' Truly net-energy is the key. Only
> conventional petroleum provides enough of a net-energy benefit to keep the
> economic engines going. Tar sands and heavy liquids are akin to the
> extreme measures we use in the ICU in my profession to keep a patient's
> heart beating long enough to get the whole family to the hospital so they
> can hold hands and say goodbye to their loved one. It is incontestable
> that a peak in conventional petroleum liquid production occurred in 2005.

hipnot
March 5th, 2008

Re: Peak Oil has happened

Hi Chris!
Well actually we may be looking in the wrong direction.

World oil production PER CAPITA peaked in 1979. As population continues
to increase the so called miracle of the market fuelled by
ever increasing amounts of energy is going to grind to a halt.

We have to start doing something about it now. I have members here who
are leaving the discussion groups because too action little is happening.
Peak oil? yes.
Peak Phosphorous? coming soon
Peak water? Already true in Australia
Peak money? The amount of money in the world is many more times that
which is backed up by real assets like real estate or stocks. And shrinking.

So what figure exactly is it that gives us hope that the carbon era can
play out slowly?
Tell me.

In all best spirit of discussion ...

Your friend and tribe member who is NOT leaving...

Steve

we are on the edge of a crisis, which Post Carbon has to address head on.
>
> Yes the 2005 peak in conventional oil is important but it isn't the whole
> story. Remember that the 2005 peak was ~74mb/d, today it's around 73mb/d
> of the total liquid production of around 86mb/d.
>
> The 13mb/d difference certainly isn't and shouldn't be dismissed as all
> being low net-energy tar sands, biofuels and the like. There are some
> very nice and useful products that aren't counted in the EIA conventional
> data and certainly haven't peaked.
>
>
> > I agree wholeheartedly that the peak in conventional liquids is
> absolutely
> > key. "Nonconventional Hydrocarbon" liquids are -- to use a "Kunstlerism"
> > -- a hallucinatory 'source of energy.' Truly net-energy is the key. Only
> > conventional petroleum provides enough of a net-energy benefit to
> keep the
> > economic engines going. Tar sands and heavy liquids are akin to the
> > extreme measures we use in the ICU in my profession to keep a patient's
> > heart beating long enough to get the whole family to the hospital so
> they
> > can hold hands and say goodbye to their loved one. It is incontestable
> > that a peak in conventional petroleum liquid production occurred in
> 2005.
>
>
> To view this group on the web, visit The Coordinator HUB Home Page
> http://www.relocalize.net/groups/coordinate -->
> To Unsubscribe from this list visit your My Subscription page for the
> group http://www.relocalize.net/og/manage/1583 -->

hipnot
March 5th, 2008

Re: Peak Oil has happened

Hi Ammi
Steve from Post Carbon Sweden here. Sweden is THE country in Europe that
is most dependent on the transport industry. We have a large vehicle
manufacturing industry, long transport distances, centralised food
distribution, harsh climate, and refineries as our export.

The last seminar I attended, Future fuels, which was hosted by the
British Embassy here in Stockholm, brought together British and
Scandinavian expertise in fuel production, vehicle design, government,
EU and others.

All had the same underlying theme. We will meet CO2 targets using new
technology and a bit of legislation. The existing vehicle park can have
5% biofuel blended in. New engines will have 100%.
I asked the same question - to what extent do you see a RISK for
unavailability of Fossil fuels or for extreme price hikes. All ruled
this out.

This means that in all their planning peak oil is not factored in. What
we can do is like they did in Willits. Ask leaders to present us with
their contingency plans. How long can the country last without oil
supplies. How much food back up is there. What plans are there to
address price hikes? If they refuse suggest they should step down and
get a job they can manage.

There should be an authority that is responsible for this. Publish the
correspondence in the newspaper if the rules of openness in government
information apply.

I guess because of the climate Finland is dependent on food from outside
and has at the best one week's supply. For oil, it is moved by truck
from Gothenberg via the E4 motorway to the harbour in Värtahämnen and
then over the Baltic sea. One disruption to Sweden's oil supply will
certainly affect Finland.

More thoughts??

Best regards

Steve Hinton

Peak Oil has happened
>
> The US Energy Information Agency www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls
> http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls --> (MS Excel spreadsheet) has May
> 2005 as the peak.
> The EIA lists the production for Saudi Arabia as dropping by a million
> barrels per day over the last two years. www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11c.xls
> http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11c.xls -->
>
> How ready are we here in Scandinavia to solve all the coming changes?
> I am badly worried bout Finland.. Finland is a disaster to nature and
> biggest consumer of hydrocarbon products in Scandinavia. Tragically
> Finnish cities and landscape continues built whole life structure and
> living basing on cheap and forever flowing oil. Like nothing has
> happened.
>
>
>
>
> To view this group on the web, visit The Coordinator HUB Home Page
> http://www.relocalize.net/groups/coordinate -->
> To Unsubscribe from this list visit your My Subscription page for the
> group http://www.relocalize.net/og/manage/1583 -->

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