Local Action for a Sustainable Tomorrow

Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts
Dept of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory
February 5, 2007
Robert L. Hirsch
http://beta.odac-info.org/sites/odac.postcarbon.org/files/pdf/Hirsch-Rec...

Executive Summary
Because oil is a depleting, finite natural resource, world
conventional oil production will reach a maximum, called “the peak,”
after which production will decline. Using differing methodologies
and information of widely varying quality, experts and organizations
have attempted to forecast the likely year of conventional oil
production peaking. Their range of estimates extends from late last
year to an apparent denial that it will ever happen. Almost all
forecasts are based on differing, often dramatically differing
geological assumptions. Explicit account of investment rates in
new and expanded production has been relatively rare.
Because of the large uncertainties, it is difficult to define an
overriding geological basis for accepting or rejecting any of the
forecasts. However, the IEA recently warned that worldwide
investment in expanded oil production has been considerably less
than needed to continue world oil production that is adequate to
meet expected world demand. Thus, geological limits may be
yielding to investment limitations.
As noted in previous literature, peak oil presents the world with a
risk management problem of tremendous complexity and enormity.
Prudent risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation
measures roughly 20 years before peaking to avoid a very
damaging world liquid fuels shortfall. Since it is uncertain when
peaking will occur or whether it will be due to geological or
investment limitations, the challenge is indeed vexing.