After spending several weeks reading the latest Peak Oil literature, I am curious why the Department of Energy, OPEC and the Oil Companies could report 'reserve data' the way they do, yet have 'production shortages' and report forecasted prices as relatively stable until 2030.

EIA price forecast:(actual price 7/07 approx$75/barrel)

Imported light crude (2005 dollars per barrel)        2007       2010       2015        2020      2030

                                                                             $66.71     $57.47    $49.87   $52.04    $59.12

source:http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html

Assuming that the mission of an oil company is to maximize shareholder value, I went back to understand the economics again. Currently OPEC produces 70% of worldwide petroleum, so there is no real 'competition' from the supply side of the equation. It is in the producer's interest to always slightly undersupply. In that way, consumers of the commodity will always be bidding prices to the highest possible value.  There is nothing to motivate the producer to oversupply the market other than to maximize demand and price.  On the other hand, to overprice the commodity would lower demand, decrease GDP and underutilize the potential oil profits. 

This is why, I believe the EIA has reported forecasted prices as relatively stable until 2030.  They assume that nominal prices as currently reflected in the market 'are at equilibrium' to maximum demand.  China and India's demand is yet a wildcard however.

There is currently no 'perfect market' when it comes to the oil commodity.  We do not know the true reserves, and there are no suitable alternatives to petroleum for transportation.