[Ed - Abridged. See full original article via link at bottom]


Photographer: Sverre Koxvold

On the last day of the [Findhorn Foundation's Positive Energy] Conference, Richard Heinberg was warmly welcomed back for his second presentation. Last night he gave us 'Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines.' Now that he'd warmed us up, he said he'd come back to try out some new ideas he'd working with over the past few weeks. "It's all a big unknown," he admitted, but had decided we were the kind of audience that could handle the unknown. Where are we? Where are we going? Richard invited us to journey together with him in this exercise in strategic thinking and see where it would lead. Based on his background, research and experience, Richard has formed 8 assumptions:

Assumptions

1. Global oil production is near its all-time maximum and will begin to decline in the next couple of years, with gas and coal not far behind. The peak discovery was in 1964. The polar regions and the Falklands are now open for exploration. Field sizes are declining — these are flooding environments. Even if there are sizeable oil fields, it will take decades to get them going.
2. Consequences will be severe. A study was done for the US Department of Energy in 2005 which examined three scenarios based on when work on the problem of peak oil in the world were to start in terms of developing an alternative food, fuel, transport structure, etc.
3. There is no techno-fix.
4. Society will have to power down, reduce our consumption, relocate, implying changes in behavior and expectations.
5. Climate change poses thorny policy challenges, but enormous economic interests stand in the way of enforceable, effective global agreements. There are good proposals out there, Richard believes, but the United States and China must be on board. It's easy for policymakers to say what they want others to hear, but continue with business as usual.
6. Climate change makes global power down necessary, meanwhile peak oil means it's not only possible but unavoidable.
7. Power down will be complex, lengthy and perilous.
8. And there are other concerns, not the least of which are the staggering financial implications.

Richard identified specific strategies and addressed them one by one:

4 Power Down Strategies
1. Topdown - changing government policy

Rationale: We do need some topdown thinking and there are some aware government officials. Cuba, Sweden (who commits to being petroleum independent by 2020), Portland, San Francisco — post carbon cities. Only the government has the power to re-allocate resources, build infrastructure, change laws (zoning, taxes, etc.) at the scale needed.

Limit: Elected officials usually tied to vested interests and need public support.

2. Responsive — planning for crisis management — Resilient Communities Action Plan

Rationale: Proactive efforts may be too little, too late, but crisis could be opportunity as seen in Cuba and during The Great Depression. Often deep change becomes possible when necessity requires it.

Limit: This is not a short-term crisis, but a permanent change of state, thus long-range planning is essential (we do need a vision of the ultimate goal).

3. Bottom up - grass roots organizing

This is famously being pursued by the Transition Town movement and many localization groups in the US.
Rationale: Power holders are not going to use this process because they have too many vested interests. It's up to us! Even if they were enlightened, they'd need broad public support. Political buy-in is essential for coherent adaptation. If there's a groundswell of public support, then they can boldly act.

Limit: Many needed changes require policy initiatives, ultimately on the scale of WWII or the New Deal. Even if we had thousands of transition towns and villages throughout the UK, Europe, US, New Zealand, and Australia, spreading like a virus, if there's no policy change in China, then it's game over.

4. Proactive - planning for linear adaptation
Energy Descent Action Plans, Portland, Oakland, and other post carbon cities.

Rationale: It will take a while — must start now — envision where we want to be and make a plan to get there.

Limit: May not be enough time, available capital, political will, crisis may intervene to undermine efforts. What if, in fact, the world is on the verge of a financial implosion, wouldn't that undermine alot of the really good proactive efforts that do require alot of time and investment?

10 Steps to a Resilient Community

What would that creation look like?
1. Form a working group with the express purpose of creating a resilience response strategy.
2. Identify people and organisations with something important to offer post peak.
3. Ask for their help and participation.
4. Work with them to develop a contingency plan in their field: how to scale up quickly.
5. Seek input from disaster management officials. It's for the sake of the community so inclusivity is important so that the plan is not undermined.
6. Contact mainstream organisations responsible for water, food, power, fuel, healthcare, etc.
7. Assemble a coherent Resilience plan.
8. Present the plan to public officials and the community as a whole.
9. Implement the plan.
10. Work with other communities to create a national plan, then repeat steps 1 though 10 at higher levels.

The Essence of the Idea

* Create a disaster response plan for peak oil and economic or environmental collapse that draws on the skills and knowledge of the alternatives movements.
* Make the plan persistently visible to policy makers and the community at large.

[Ed. - See Richard Heinberg's Muse Letter article on Resilient Communities.