Local Action for a Sustainable Tomorrow

Sequim Town Hall Meeting – Peak Oil Page 1 of 2
4/28/08

Sid Maroney
Local Action for a Sustainable Tomorrow, LAST
808-7300

The Wolf is at the Door!
World Oil Discoveries peaked in 1964 and have been decreasing despite better exploration and drilling technology.
Conventional World Oil Production has been slightly decreasing for over 2 years while demand is increasing greatly. A growing number of experts, in and outside of governments, do not think world oil production, conventional and unconventional, can meet demand.
Oil pricing could become unstable and increase dramatically when there is no longer a supply/demand relationship to keep pricing in check. Transportation, manufacturing, and food costs could increase significantly which could collapse the world economy and cause shortages.
Two US Government reports in 2005 and 2007 states that if peak oil is now, and it may be, it would cause significant problems to the US economy.
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management 2005
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking…
…In summary, the problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society. The challenges and uncertainties need to be much better understood. Technologies exist to mitigate the problem. Timely, aggressive risk management will be essential
CRUDE OIL >> Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production 2007
…The prospect of a peak in oil production presents problems of global proportion whose consequences will depend critically on our preparedness. The consequences would be most dire if a peak occurred soon, without warning, and were followed by a sharp decline in oil production because alternative energy sources, particularly for transportation, are not yet available in large quantities. Such a peak would require sharp reductions in oil consumption, and the competition for increasingly scarce energy would drive up prices, possibly to unprecedented levels, causing severe economic damage. While these consequences would be felt globally, the United States, as the largest consumer of oil and one of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be especially vulnerable among the industrialized nations of the world. ….
US Rep Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland has given 42 speeches on the House floor regarding peak oil warning of the problems and trying to get others onboard.
On February 2008 US Senator Diane Feinstein of California asked the Dept of Energy for their plan regarding the 2007 report.
The US government has initiated no plan or action.
Everything could see significantly higher pricing and/or shortages. The peninsula is particularly vulnerable because of our isolation, however, this can also be our strength.
What can the city do?
Relocalizing the economy and strengthening our local community appears to be the best solution.
1. I recommend establishing a peak oil task force similar to Portland and Spokane to figure out what we can do.
2. I recommend the City sponsor DVD showings of documentaries to help educate the citizens on peak oil, climate change and other current issues.

Your thoughts?