PS 399 (CRN 44171): Peak Oil and the Politics of the 21st Century

University of Oregon, Department of Political Science

Summer 2006 (7/24-8/16) (4 credits)

Mon-Thur 2-3:50pm, 125 McKenzie
Instructor: Tamas Golya
Office: 823 PLC

Office Hours (during the summer class): Mon-Thur 4-5pm

Phone: 346-4890

Email: tgolya@uoregon.edu

“The American Way of Life is not negotiable.”

Dick Cheney, US Vice President

“The species Homo sapiens is not going to become extinct.

But the subspecies Petroleum Man most certainly is.”

Colin Campbell, Founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil

Course Description

Peak Oil is a term used by geologists to describe the point in time at which the world’s annual oil production reaches a maximum after which it inevitably declines. Recent evidence suggests we are about to reach this peak, possibly over the next 5 years. In a broader sense, Peak Oil also stands for the economic, political, and societal effects of a dramatically changing energy supply. These effects will in many ways create unprecedented problems, risks and opportunities for policy makers as well as for consumers and citizens. In part due to higher oil prices, the US is finally beginning to catch up to this issue, as evidenced by the founding of a Peak Oil Caucus in the House of Representatives in 2005. Even President Bush went as far as demanding to find ways to cure “America’s addiction to oil”.

This class explores the events that may be ahead of us, and what they mean. We will evaluate different policy options, including support for alternative energies. Which ones are short-term fixes, what are long-term solutions? Are resource wars around the corner? Have they already begun?

We’ll find out about the vital role petroleum has played in the last 100 years for modern economies and in foreign policy. We will understand why the US is particularly vulnerable to Peak Oil, and what regions and industries will fare better than others. This relates to issues such as where you may want to live, or what you may want to invest in. The class also seeks to put the coming energy crisis into a larger context of environmental changes, questions of sustainability and the workings of our economy. Are globalization, SUVs or suburbia only temporary phenomena? What about democracy? We will see that even though Peak Oil will be inevitable, many hypothesized effects, including some of the nastier ones, are highly contingent. In the end, the way political and economic systems will work, plus what every single citizen decides to do regarding energy use, will make a difference.

I strongly believe that the subject matter of this class will only become more relevant over the coming years. For this and other reasons, this class will be just as valuable to students of social sciences, geography, or business, as indeed to anyone interested in his or her future.

Readings

Required:

Richard Heinberg: The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies, 2nd edition

2005, New Society;

James Howard Kunstler: The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change,

and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century, Paperback edition

2006, Grove Press;

Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, Robert Wendling: Peaking of World Oil Production:

Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management (“Hirsch Report”), SAIC / US Department

of Energy, 2005, available online:

http://www.pppl.gov/publications/pics/Oil_Peaking_1205.pdf ;

Recommended:

Kevin Phillips: American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and

Borrowed Money in the 21st Century, 2006, Viking;

Colin J. Campbell: The Availability of Non-Conventional Oil and Gas, ASPO Ireland / UK

Department of Trade and Industry, 2006, available online:

http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/documents/UK-Availability.pdf

Various short readings and sound files will be available online or posted on Blackboard

Recommended Websites:

The internet is particularly useful for this topic, in part because it is more up-to-date than any book can be, and because the mainstream (in the media as well as in academia) is only slowly catching up to Peak Oil. The following websites are great for a first look at the subject matter (several provide excellent introductions or primers). But they will also provide quality material for take-home exercises and the optional paper, as well as keeping the lecture and in-class discussion up-to-date. Of course, it is not implied that you have to take the information or opinion in them as gospel.

Some of the Top Websites on Peak Oil and its Effects

http://www.energybulletin.net/

http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

http://fromthewilderness.com/

http://www.drydipstick.com/

http://peakoil.net/

http://www.peakoil.com/index.php

http://www.oilcrisis.com/

http://www.postcarbon.org/

http://www.permatopia.com/

http://dieoff.org/

The Best Discussion Forum on Peak Oil. Thought-Provoking and Diverse!

http://www.theoildrum.com/

Website Accompanying the DVD “The End of Suburbia” (shown in class)

http://www.endofsuburbia.com/

Websites of Richard Heinberg and James Howard Kunstler

http://www.museletter.com/index.html

http://kunstler.com/

Assignments and Grading

Midterm (25%)

The midterm will be a 50 minutes, primarily essay-based exam. Plus, there will be a short answer part. For two reasons, I decided to do both exams as open notes/open books exams (however, laptops will not be allowed): 1) I don’t want to test your memorization skills, but rather your understanding of the subject and if you can incorporate it into a compelling argumentation that accounts for different perspectives; 2) In a four-week course there may not be time for review sessions. In other words, don’t take the exams lightly and don’t start reading the night before the midterm. On the other hand, anyone with a real interest in the subject should do very well.

Final (35%)

Same deal as midterm, only longer (2 hours).

In both exams, you will be given a choice of essay topics.

Take-Home and In-Class Exercises (40%)

There will be at least five short and easy exercises out of which your top four scores count.

The in-class exercises also effectively measure your attendance and will not be announced beforehand.

Optional Paper (up to 10 BONUS points)

If you are particularly interested to learn more about a topic connected to Peak Oil, you can write a short paper (6-12 pages) on one of the following topics: 1) Choose one of the 50 US states, or a foreign country, and explore how it will be affected by Peak Oil. Use your imagination, think of what industries are important to this state/country, how dependent it is on cheap energy, did it already make any attempts to move to alternative energies or to conserve energy etc.; 2) Compare and contrast the two textbooks and their authors’ (Heinberg and Kunstler) positions. While they cover largely the same material, they differ in subtle ways. How? Why? Here you will also have to refer to their respective websites and to interviews which will be provided on Blackboard; 3) Compare the forecasts regarding the timing of Peak Oil of at least four different sources. How did the authors/agencies arrive at their prediction? Which prediction is more credible, which less? 4) Explore the benefits, costs, the long-term sustainability and feasibility of at least two alternative energy sources (Anything but conventional oil or natural gas counts as alternatives here); 5) Design your own research question. In this case you are required to get my approval before the end of the second week of the class.

In any case, you need to cite at least five different sources (this can, of course, include websites). If you can’t quite find what you need, ask the instructor for help.

Due to time constraints, no papers submitted after the due date (Aug. 15) will be accepted.

I do not grade on a curve. Therefore, not submitting a paper will not hurt your grade.

Class Policies

Late Work/Make Ups

The time and date of the Final, as usual, is not negotiable (not even for me). The paper is optional, and the worst of your exercise scores will be dropped. This leaves only the midterm as a candidate for a make-up. Only a written note (from a doctor, the Athletic Department etc.) exempts you from taking the midterm at the assigned date. However, you need to contact me about such issues by the end of the day of the midterm, at the latest.

Incompletes

Incompletes will only be granted in exceptional emergency situations (death in the immediate family, serious illness etc.). In all other cases the grade will be based upon the work completed by the end of the class, which may result in a failing grade. The grade “I” for Incomplete will be assigned only after the instructor and the student have completed and signed a Contract for Grade of Incomplete, which is available on the Political Science Department Website at http://darkwing.uoregon.edu/~polisci/php/webpage.php?Courses

Plagiarism

Plagiarism is using someone else’s ideas and presenting them as your own. Just don’t do it!

If you are caught doing this you risk failing the class – even if it only applied to the optional paper. Contact me if you have any questions. Also, take a look at the following UO website for clarification and guidance: http://libweb.uoregon.edu/guides/plagiarism/students/

The University of Oregon Student Conduct Code will be enforced. You can view the code at: http://www.uoregon.edu/~conduct/code.htm

Disabilities

Students with disabilities will be accommodated. Please contact Disability Services, 164 Oregon Hall, at 346-1155 and they will advise me as to how to meet your needs.

The #1 Class Policy

Have fun – with the assignments, the readings, the web surfing, and, hopefully, in class!

This point is especially important in light of some of the more depressing sides of the subject matter. The future depends on how each one of us will deal with the bad news. Creativity will be one important asset; the others will be optimism and the framing of problems as opportunities.

And let’s not forget, it’s a summer class! You are encouraged to think outside the box.

I will leave room for plenty of discussion time. Take advantage of that…

Course Outline (slight changes possible)

7/24 Introduction: “What is the Matrix?”

7/25 DVD “The End of Suburbia”

7/26 “Petroleum Man”; Hubbert’s Peak

7/27 Peak Oil Critics; Unconventional Oil; EROEI

7/31 Alternative Energies I

8/1 Alternative Energies II

8/2 Conservation and Mitigation

8/3 MIDTERM EXAM (50 min.) Bring Green Books!; open topic in the 2nd hour

8/7 Peak Oil and the United States

8/8 Peak Oil and International Relations

8/9 The End of Growth? Economics vs. Ecology

8/10 The Psychology of Peak Oil; Religion & Class; Intergenerational Justice

8/14 Last One Standing vs. Powerdown; Oil Depletion Protocol

8/15 Re-localization, New Urbanism and Permaculture; OPTIONAL PAPER DUE

8/16 The Path to Sustainability