[Please refer to the attached .pdf document at bottom for printing out and circulating. The newer Post Carbon Eugene logo is now at the top of page 1. The 1st horizontal page has page 4/the back, on the left half. Page 1/the front, is on the right half. The 2nd horizontal page is the inside of the brochure: pages 2 and 3. Simply print the 2 pages back-to-back and fold along the vertical line. Here it is in it's original layout:]
ARE YOU PREPARED FOR $8.00/GALLON GAS?
If you’re expecting oil and natural gas prices to drop back to “normal”, don’t count on it. Examples like Hurricane Katrina’s impacts on oil refineries and our slim production reserves, compounded now by a weakening oil-trading-benchmark dollar, has worsened a worldwide gas and oil crisis that has been growing for years.
Diminishing supplies of cheap, abundant oil and gas represent an unprecedented challenge to our way of life. It threatens the very things we take for granted: an ever-growing economy, current modes of transportation, and cheap, constantly imported food, along with most other goods.
How can our community respond to this challenge and soften the local impacts?
World oil production is peaking
U.S. oil production peaked more than 35 years ago in 1970. As a result, we now import more than 60% of the oil we need to maintain our lifestyle. Worldwide discoveries of oil peaked even before that, in 1962. The world now consumes four barrels of oil for every one discovered. Many independent experts consider production will(or has) peak(ed)— reach it’s maximum and permanently decline- within the next 5 years or less. After that oil will be more difficult and expensive to extract. Available supply will permanently fall below global needs.
Why is cheap oil important to us?
Cheap abundant oil and gas have been the foundation for our society. Oil provides nearly 40% of our primary energy and 70% of our transportation fuel. It powers our cars, trucks, trains, planes, and ships. It heats our homes and factories. It fuels power plants. It’s the raw material for plastic, fabric, and cosmetics. Almost everything we have or do relies on fossil fuels.
The U.S. is not the only country hungry for more oil. Thanks to fossil fuel fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, global food production has tripled in the last century. That in turn fueled an equal increase in world population, bringing a soaring demand for our energy-intensive lifestyles- witness China and India.
How will peak oil affect our economy?
“Peak oil represents the most serious and immediate challenge to our prosperity and security”
-Australian legislator Andrew McNamara
As our economy grows, so does our need for oil. With global demand now at or approaching the available supply, competition for what remains is what is driving oil prices ever higher.
We will see rising costs for everything- electricity, gasoline, heating and more. All products, like food and medicine, will be more expensive to produce, transport, and store(refrigerate). Airlines and the tourist industry will be hard hit.
How will our economy grow as our most important energy source declines? It won’t. Expect inflation and a contracting economy. In the worst case, we may well see “resource wars”, hoarding, irregular deliveries, rationing, power outages, and wide-spread unemployment.
Isn’t something being done about this?
Most experts say we should develop all the alternative energy sources- solar, wind, hydroelectric, geo-thermal, biofuels, and hydrogen. But even all of these taken together will be unable to take the place of portable, cheap oil; especially in the short term. Building a new energy infrastructure will take decades, and a lot of energy.
In a government-sponsored report, Peaking of World Oil Production, former V.P. of Arco Oil, and RAND senior energy analyst Robert L. Hirsch states:
“The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past ‘energy crisis’ experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis.”
Matthew Simmons, founder of an international energy investment-banking firm and advisor to the Bush administration, believes that Hurricane Katrina will be remembered as the start of “our great energy war.” He stated:
“We’re almost at the verge of having real energy shortages. We should be looking at $10-a-gallon gas this winter…We are in a deep energy hole. We must create a Plan B to ensure the future of energy, or we won’t have a future of energy.”
Right now, there is no “Plan B”. Current U.S. energy policy is to procure as many worldwide sources of oil as possible and to subsidize highly-polluting coal and nuclear power for electricity. Nothing is being done to require greater efficiency for energy-consuming products, invest in rail infrastructure, or embark on vigorous alternate-energy development programs.
What can YOU do?
There are things you can do now to cut your energy costs and to cut your dependency on fossil fuels. Utilize abundant local bike transportation choices, take advantage of numerous LTD public transit options, share rides, and reduce car trips. Initiate energy-saving measures at home. Most importantly, start your own food source with your own garden or by signing up for a community garden space. See www.victorygardensforall.org for more. The Willamette Valley is one of the most fertile places for growing foods – year round - on the planet. Take advantage of local, state, and federal incentives for installing solar electricity panels and/or a solar hot water heater at home. Get to know your neighbors as your mutual support. Store food, water, and emergency supplies in the event of disruptions. Educate yourself, family and friends so you can make good choices about other actions to take.
What can WE do? Re-localize!
Individual changes will help but we can and must do more. We need to re-localize our economy to meet our essential needs locally rather than depending on long chains of supply from all over the world.
Relocalization is the opposite of globalization - it shortens the distance between producer and consumer. We need to buy and produce more locally-grown food, buy from local retailers rather than chain or ‘big-box’ stores, and re-develop local manufacturing capacity rather than relying on goods imported from around the world.
One of the most important things you can do now to re-localize is to “buy local”. Come home to eat and shop!
“Re-localize now, ahead of the rush. Don’t wait to begin forming networks of mutual aid.”
-Richard Heinberg, author of Powerdown
‘Living Well in a Changing World'
Post Carbon Eugene, part of the international Post Carbon Institute(www.postcarbon.org) is a grassroots citizen's group concerned about the repercussions of declining fossil fuel availability. Post Carbon Eugene raises awareness of and promotes local, sustainable responses to the global crises of declining supplies of cheap, reliable energy; natural resource depletion; climate change and environmental degradation. We advance and support solutions including reduced consumption and increased reliance on sustainable local assets, rather than finite global resources. We believe that by responding locally, quickly and effectively to these challenges, we have an opportunity to create communities, food supplies, transportation systems and a local economy that meets our true human needs.
Our monthly presentation series is posted on our website[here]. Call 541.485.6846 or check our website for directions and topic:
www.relocalize.net/group/eugene
