Sustainable Population for the Willamette Valley
So how many people can the Willamette Valley hold? Has anyone done a study yet? What are the limiting factors? - Fresh water, arable land, trading asset?
Weigh in with facts, opinions, worries, hopes, dreams!
Lets build a database so we have some fodder to create a place that will regenerate for generations and generations!
Washington County Peak Oil
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July 17th, 2007
WV numbers
I did some research and read on a couple sites that the Willamette and Sandy valleys together are 12,000 square miles.
1 sq mile= 258.999 hectares
1 hectare- 2.471 acres
so if my math is correct, that's 3,107,988 hectares. And 7,679,838 acres. We have 70% (or about 2.5 million) of the state's population. So that's 3.07 acres per person in the valley.
Using the same process, Cuba comes up with 2.5 acres per person. And they still lost 20 pounds on average, right?
Despite seemingly more area per person, we probably have less sunshine/good year round growing weather than Cuba and California. It's quite clear that we need our Master Gardeners to teach crash courses in winter gardening! And OPB needs to get Caprial and John to do a few shows on all the ways to cook Swiss chard and parsnips (and love it!). And Measure 37 needs to be seriously reconsidered.
Please someone double check the math. I'm sure portland peak oil task force has some info on this, possibly in their report.
July 4th, 2007
What are the limiting factors?...Not just land, I guess.
I'd really like to thank a friend, Nancy Dennis, for the following:
On the Willits relocalization site, Jason writes that 2000 acres would be needed to feed the 13,000 people in the valley. This works out to .15 acres per person. An acre contains 43,560 square feet. Therefore, each person would need 6534 square feet.
Jason based this calculation on the work of John Jeavons, whose research farm is located on the outskirts of Willits. One important goal of his research is to figure out how to grow a complete diet in the smallest possible amount of land. Out of that research he has developed the plan of using intensively planted, raised beds of 100 square feet each with pathways equal to about 60 square feet.
Total area per bed: 160 sq. ft.
Using the figure of 160 square feet per growing bed, 6534 square feet (the amount Jason figures will be needed to feed each person) will equal 40.8 growing beds. In his advanced courses, Jeavons has his students plan for growing a complete diet in 40 beds. Someone I know has done the exercise, and I can tell you that it was a real challenge. The diet you get out of it will be vegetarian and low fat. This means .15-acre per person is a bare minimum—a way to prevent starvation. A larger area per person would be much more comfortable.
So now all we need to do is determine how much arable land exists in the Willamette Valley, to determine if we can fully survive here given our current population.
With that thought in mind, I'm wondering how a region "closes the doors" to migrants once the holding capacity is reached? I wonder what migrants from areas that have very little arable, farmable land would have to say about it?
Peak Oil: Know the issue...understand the implications. Prepare yourself.